Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential race signals a major shift in U.S. immigration policy, with a firm stance on border security and plans for significant deportations. In his acceptance speech, Trump emphasized his commitment to fortifying the U.S.-Mexico border and improving national security, a central message of his campaign.
Trump’s goal to deport millions of undocumented immigrants — an estimated 12 million individuals — could define his administration’s approach to immigration. He has suggested using the National Guard or military forces to support this effort, though the scale and financial feasibility remain in question. According to the American Immigration Council, deporting just one million individuals annually could cost over $88 billion each year, totaling nearly $1 trillion over a decade.
In his first term, Trump introduced the “Remain in Mexico” policy, keeping asylum-seekers outside U.S. borders while their immigration cases proceeded. Though the Biden administration ended this program in 2022, a renewed Trump administration would likely reinstate it and dismantle other policies deemed lenient. Biden’s “Keeping Families Together” initiative, allowing immigrant spouses of U.S. citizens greater access to legal status, and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) protections for “Dreamers” could also face elimination. Immigration advocacy groups are poised to challenge any restrictions on these programs through legal action, as they did during Trump’s previous term.
Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for migrants from regions facing turmoil, such as Lebanon and Haiti, may also be reevaluated. Haitian migrants, in particular, have faced inflammatory rhetoric, with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance suggesting that their legal status was an outcome of the current administration’s “open border” policies. Trump has also pledged to target “sanctuary cities” that protect undocumented immigrants by reducing federal funds, potentially intensifying pressure on local governments.
In addition to undocumented immigration, Trump may push for changes to legal immigration processes, including H-1B visas for skilled workers. Comprehensive immigration reform, including country-based visa limits or higher caps, appears unlikely under Trump’s administration.
Trump on Wider Global Policy
Trump has proposed a sweeping 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, aiming to erase the trade deficit, though economists warn it could drive up prices for Americans and lead to broader global economic challenges. He advocates for direct authority to increase tariffs on countries that impose their own tariffs on U.S. goods, even suggesting a 200% tariff on certain imported cars to curb imports from places like Mexico. Trump has also indicated that allies, including the European Union, may face elevated tariffs on their exports to the U.S.
China is a key focus in Trump’s trade strategy. He plans to phase out imports of Chinese goods, such as electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals, over four years. In addition, he proposes banning Chinese firms from owning critical U.S. infrastructure and real estate, particularly in energy and technology sectors.
Trump’s View on Ongoing Conflicts
Trump has criticized the extent of U.S. support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, stating he could bring about peace within 24 hours, although he hasn’t specified his approach. He has hinted that any potential deal might involve Ukraine ceding some territory, a stance Ukraine strongly opposes. Additionally, Trump has suggested a reevaluation of NATO’s mission, indicating that under his leadership, the U.S. might seek to redefine NATO’s objectives and purpose.
In the Middle East, Trump has expressed strong support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas, pushing for a swift resolution while likely maintaining the current U.S. approach of supplying arms. He may also continue efforts, first launched during his prior term, to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although Biden has pursued a similar goal, Trump’s renewed influence could bring this potential alliance back to the forefront.
Regarding Lebanon, Trump has pledged to halt the turmoil there but has yet to outline specific actions. Domestically, he has proposed a large-scale missile defense system across the U.S., inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome.
Trump has also considered deploying the military to combat drug cartels in Mexico, including a possible naval blockade to stop the flow of fentanyl and related substances into the U.S. These strategies, if enacted, would mark a significant expansion of U.S. foreign policy in both hemispheres.
