Migrant detentions at the US-Mexico border have significantly decreased in recent months due to a crackdown by Mexican authorities, which has prevented tens of thousands from reaching the border. However, experts believe this reduction is temporary and unsustainable. During President Biden’s administration, over 6.4 million migrants have been stopped from crossing the border illegally, a record high that has made him politically vulnerable with the presidential election just six months away.
In a May news conference, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reported that the number of migrants at the border had fallen by 50%, from a peak of 12,000 daily to 6,000. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows a drop from 302,000 encounters in December to about 179,000 in April, with 128,000 attempts to cross unlawfully, a 30% reduction compared to the previous year. Despite these reductions, the current figures are still higher than in previous years.
López Obrador attributed the decline to U.S.-Mexico cooperation and the increased availability of legal immigration channels. However, experts argue that the primary reason is Mexico’s intensified efforts to stop migrants heading north. This crackdown, which began after a December meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mexican officials, includes new checkpoints, increased patrols, and removing migrants from freight trains bound for the U.S. border.
Mexican government records show approximately 120,000 migrant detentions in January and February alone, with most migrants remaining in Mexico. Only around 8,000 deportations, primarily to Guatemala and Honduras, have been reported, with many migrants being relocated to Mexico’s interior or southern regions. Lila Abed of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center stated that these reductions are temporary and not a sustainable solution.
The decline in migrant crossings comes at a crucial time for President Biden, with immigration being a key concern for many voters as the November presidential election approaches. A Gallup poll in April found that 27% of Americans see immigration as the nation’s most important issue, while a March poll by the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showed that two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the border, including about 40% of Democrats.
The White House has remained largely silent on the recent drop in migrant arrivals and detentions, only stating that Biden and López Obrador discussed managing hemispheric migration and directed their national security teams to implement measures to reduce irregular border crossings. Experts suggest the administration is cautious about declaring victory prematurely, given the potential for numbers to rise again. The Biden administration is reportedly considering a broad executive order to limit the number of asylum seekers and potentially shut down the border if migrant numbers increase significantly.
